{"id":19127,"date":"2025-06-26T07:54:50","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T07:54:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kriptomagazin.si\/?p=19127"},"modified":"2025-06-26T07:54:50","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T07:54:50","slug":"morgan-stanley-predvideva-zacetek-znizanja-obrestnih-mer-fed-a-marca-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/morgan-stanley-predvideva-zacetek-znizanja-obrestnih-mer-fed-a-marca-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley predvideva za\u010detek zni\u017eanja obrestnih mer Fed-a marca 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"19127\" class=\"elementor elementor-19127\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6ac44a4a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6ac44a4a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-cf7eb51\" data-id=\"cf7eb51\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-73e21c97 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"73e21c97\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">V trenutnem gospodarskem okolju, zaznamovanem z geopoliti\u010dno negotovostjo in previdnostjo glede odlo\u010ditev ameri\u0161ke centralne banke (Fed), Morgan Stanley prina\u0161a presenetljivo napoved. Investicijska banka pri\u010dakuje, da bo Fed za\u010del z zni\u017eanjem obrestnih mer marca 2026, s skupno sedmimi zni\u017eanji v letu, kar bi pripeljalo do terminalne obrestne mere med 2,5 % in 2,75 %.<\/span><\/p><h2><b>Kaj pomeni predvideno zni\u017eanje obrestnih mer?<\/b><\/h2><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u010ce bo ta scenarij potrjen, bi \u0161lo za prelomno spremembo v politiki Fed-a, ki od leta 2022 vztrajno pove\u010duje obrestne mere. Po trenutnih projekcijah naj bi se Fed po zaklju\u010dku obdobja zvi\u0161evanja za\u010del naglo umirjati z agresivnim ciklom spro\u0161\u010danja denarne politike.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Klju\u010dni elementi napovedi so:<\/span><\/p><ul style=\"color: white;\"><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u010casovni okvir<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: prvi rez naj bi nastopil marca 2026, obrestne mere pa naj bi ostale visoke vsaj do konca leta 2025.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Obseg zni\u017eanj<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: sedem zni\u017eanj obrestnih mer v enem letu, kar pomeni skoraj 175 baznih to\u010dk.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Ciljna terminalna stopnja<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: med 2,5 % in 2,75 %, kar bi predstavljalo nevtralno politiko brez dodatnega spodbujanja ali omejevanja gospodarstva.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Makroekonomski dejavniki<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: pri\u010dakuje se mo\u010dno upo\u010dasnitev gospodarske rasti ali trajno zmanj\u0161anje inflacije, ki bi zahtevala sprostitev politike.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h3><b>Mo\u017ene posledice za kripto trg: prilo\u017enost za rast?<\/b><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u010ceprav Morgan Stanley v svoji napovedi ne omenja neposredno digitalnih sredstev, strokovnjaki na podro\u010dju <\/span><b>kripto<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> tehnologij vidijo v tem scenariju potencialno prilo\u017enost za pospe\u0161eno rast trga.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zgodovinsko obdobja zni\u017eanja obrestnih mer pogosto sovpadajo z izbolj\u0161anjem razmer na trgih tveganj, vklju\u010dno s pove\u010danim zanimanjem za <\/span><b>kripto<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> nalo\u017ebe. Ni\u017eji stro\u0161ki kapitala pove\u010dujejo likvidnost in spodbujajo vlagatelje k iskanju donosnej\u0161ih sredstev, kamor pogosto spadajo tudi digitalni \u017eetoni in platforme za decentralizirane finance (DeFi).<\/span><\/p><h3><b>Dejavniki negotovosti in dolgoro\u010dna perspektiva<\/b><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kljub optimizmu glede monetarnega spro\u0161\u010danja, ostaja veliko neznank. Geopoliti\u010dne napetosti, zlasti v regijah z velikim svetovnim vplivom, dogajanje na trgu dela v ZDA in morebitni novi valovi inflacije lahko vplivajo na uresni\u010ditev tega scenarija.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Za zdaj je napoved Morgan Stanley signifikanten signal za finan\u010dne trge, ki bodo morali v prihodnjih mesecih prilagoditi svoje modele in strategije upravljanja premo\u017eenja.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6f38619 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6f38619\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f2e6eb4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f2e6eb4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 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Investicijska banka pri\u010dakuje, da bo Fed za\u010del z zni\u017eanjem obrestnih mer marca 2026, s skupno sedmimi zni\u017eanji v letu, kar bi pripeljalo do terminalne obrestne mere med 2,5 % in 2,75 %. Kaj pomeni [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":33325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[116,124],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kripto-novice","category-svetovna-ekonomija"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/74.000-2025-07-02T111535.138.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testnamag.si\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}